Does the Future Look Bleak for Fracking in the U.S?

Whilst writing this blog, I have explored many of the environmental concerns that have been raised surrounding the fracking debate... and there are a whole range of potential threats that come inevitably with each and every stage in the fracking process. These threats range from groundwater contamination to declining species diversity. However, those countries involved in the fracking boom, have made the decision that the economic benefits outweigh the potential threats to the environment. 

However, a new report by David Hughes entitled 'DRILL BABY DRILL, Can Unconventional Fuels Usher in a New Era of Energy Abundance' and published in the Post Carbon Institute, questions the unblinking trust in the sustainability of shale-gas production. (http://shalebubble.org/drill-baby-drill/)

In this report Hughes explains the difference between The Rate of Energy Supply and The Net Energy Yield. The rate of energy supply corresponds to the rate at which the resource can be produced. Although there are huge in-situ volumes of shale gas, that rate of extraction is limited by geochemical geological and geographical factors. The net energy yield refers to the difference between the energy input required to extract the shale gas and the energy value of the final product; this is often called 'the energy returned on energy invested' or EROEI. Fracking, like other unconventional energy resources, has a lower EROEI that conventional energy resources and as Hughes states, this equates to higher production costs, lower production rates and more environmental damage in the process!

Hughes, whose credentials include 32 years working with the Geological Survey of Canada, explains that over-optimistic estimations of natural gas resources could result in an economic crash with disastrous consequences, comparable to the 2008 real estate collapse. Hughes analysed 63,000 wells in production in the USA and has voiced concerns over the following issues:

(unfortunately the axis units are unavailable but the graphs can be viewed in full at the link for the report).

1. The exponential boom in shale gas production since 2000 has plateaued at 2011. The x-axis shows year from 2000 to 2012. The y- axis shows gas production in billion cubic feet per day from 0 to 25. The legend shows 10 major shale-gas production sites in the USA.

 The general trend shows the exponential increase in hydraulic fracturing, that began in the early 2000's and led to 40% of the USA's gas production coming from shale fracturing. However, since 2011 there has been a plateau in shale gas production; more the 4/5 of the shale-gas is produced from 4 major shale-gas reserves (Haynesville, Barnett, Marcellus and Fayetteville), which are already in decline.

2. The volume of shale gas production decreases year by year for every well. The x- axis shows months of production from 1 to 46. The y-axis shows gas production in million cubic feet per day from 0 to 8000.

Shale gas wells unanimously have very high rates of yearly decline in gas production; the result is that huge amounts of capital must be invested continuously to keep production in process. Hughes estimates this value to be $42 billion per year to drill 7000 wells. The economic viability of this must be questioned when the value of shale gas produced in the year 2012 was only a measly $32.5 billion. Essential the EROEI becomes too low- too much capital is required to keep up fracking operations.

3. Future predictions for shale gas production show an overwhelming downward trend. The x-axis shows year from 2005 to 2025. The y-axis shows shale gas production in thousand barrels per day from 0 to 2025. The legend shows shale gas fields in the USA: Eagleford, Bakken and all other plays.

Several of the best shale reserves in the USA are already in decline and yearly productivity is set to decrease... this has led to morbid predictions for the future of fracking. Even though huge volumes of shale gas resources can be found in the USA, as time goes on, it will become increasingly more difficult, expensive and risk-intensive to extract these resources. The confusion over the numbers is evident in both printed and on-line  media. Even President Obama made reference to a '100 year supply of natural gas' in his State of the Union speech this year (http://www.cnbc.com/id/47279959/The_Math_Behind_the_100Year_NaturalGas_Supply_Debate), clearly someone didn't get the memo on the difference between The Rate of Energy Supply and The Net Energy Yield. 

So, what can we conclude from this? Are the days of fracking are numbered? Well, yes. It is a fossil fuel after all and is ultimately a finite resource. The problem ultimately resides in the fact that the global market has its foundation firmly based on fossil fuels, maybe the time has come to focus capital investment on renewable energy resources that don't contribute to climate change or pose a threat to the environment.... well we can dream at least!

Waste Water Disposal...The Future Of Disposal and Treatment

OK, so over past few weeks I've really gone to town on posts about fracking wastewater and I hope that I've provided enough information for you to make your own decision on the sustainability of the hydraulic fracturing future.

The last topic I'm going to cover regarding fracking watsewater is the news that in 2014, the  Environmnetal Protection Agenecy (EPA) (http://www.epa.gov/) of the USA are going to set national guidelines for the safe disposal of fracking wastewater. This comes partly in response to pressure from anti-fracking campaigners, such as group Earthjustice, who have been pushing for rigourous and uniform standards of wastewater disposal since the fracking debate began. The new standards specifically require the removal of carcinogenic and toxic chemicals before it is released from water treatment plants. Prior to this amendment, fracking wastewater was classified as 'non-hazardous waste', with American Congress specifically exempting fracking wastewater from hazardous classification in the Solid Waste Disposal Act (1987) (www.epa.gov/osw/conserve/tools/cpg/pdf/rcra-6002.pdf)

Lisa Jackson, the EPA Administrator said:

"The president has made clear that natural gas has a central role to play in our energy economy, that is why we are taking steps — in coordination with our federal partners and informed by the input of industry experts, states and public health organizations — to make sure the needs of our energy future are met safely and responsibly."

In a scientific paper entitled 'Wastewater Generation and Disposal from Natural Gas Wells in Pennsylvania' (http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CFsQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdukespace.lib.duke.edu%2Fdspace%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F10161%2F5320%2FLewis_MP2.pdf&ei=vSFfUsvGEbCO7Ab34oGYCQ&usg=AFQjCNFyXVJrW-tw4HOc5pEc0I6EWnzJoA&sig2=Lw4HVIguoriGZ3KzHlUTZA) by Aurana Lewis from Duke University documents the shift in disposal techniques of fracking wastewater and also draws important comparisons with conventional gas extraction. Interestingly, it has been documented in this paper that fracking wells produce 3 times the amount of natural gas for every gallon of wastewater generated when compared to conventional gas extraction; suggesting that fracking is the more efficient method of gas extraction. However, fracking can only take place where the natural reserves of shale are; concentrating and amplifying wastewater generation in certain areas. This creates a delicate balance of the water budget between the use of fresh water to create the fracking fluid and its subsequent disposal. Historical disposal techniques included direct discharge of wastewater into surfacewater where the small volumes could be adequately diluted but as the fracking industry continues its exponential increase it it evident this is no longer a sustaible future for wastewater disposal. This was particluarly apparent in the period of 2004-2009, where early fracking exploits overwhelmed freshwater systems with wastewater disposal, resulting in reduced surface water quality.

There are four methods outlined for future wastewater disposal; the stringent new outlines cap levels of chloride, dissolved oygen and sulphate levels.

1. Publically Owned Treatment Works (POTW's); this is the treatment of wastewater by municpal treatment facilities that traditionally handle the disposal of household waste and sewerage. By applying filtration techniques such as coagulation, settling ponds and ultra-violet light purification, biological and heavy metal contaminants can be removed.
2. Injection Wells; the permanent disposal of fracking fluid by underground injection into rock formations. This is currently used in Colarado and Western states of the USA.
3. Centralised Wastewater Treatments (CWT's); these are privately owned commercial businesses that handle to  the disposal of industrial waste from both gas and oil exploration.
4. Recycling; this is where fracking wastewater is re-used following blending with freshwater of treatment to remove TDS ( Total Dissolved Solids).

So, this is good news for the US. But what about the UK? (http://www.water.org.uk/home/policy/positions/shale-gas/water-uk-position-paper-on-gas-shale-extraction--sept-2012-.pdf). Well, once again the government seem to be well and truly off the pace. There are no current standards outlined for the disposal of wastewater by the large onshore companies in the UK. Indeed, the whole process is 'self-regulated' by energy company itself. When the future of surface water quality and so many other important environmental concerns hang on the safe disposal of fracking wastewater, the last thing we want to see is a comprimise between quality of water treatment and a companies profit margin . My personal opinion echoes that of the general public: why should fracking companies be allowed to exploit loopholes in the law at the expense of our own environment and countryside. Having spent considerable amounts of time reading up on the UK fracking debate, there is a strong feeling that governmental bodies are waiting for disaster to strike before acting. What's really required is for the UK to come to the forefront of the global fracking debate and set guidelines and regulations in place to mitigate the impacts on the environment and ensure a sustainable future.

Image URL: http://www.presseurop.eu/files/brown-fracking.jpg

Fracking...a Threat to the Ecosytem. A study of the Marcellus-Utica Region

A recent study of species biodiversity, conducted in the Marcellus-Utica shale region, suggests that the effects of fracking could pose a serious threat to the populations of 15 quasi-endemic species from various habitats in the vicinity of Hydraulic Fracturing sites.

The article published by Gillen. J. L & Kiviat. E. in Environmental Reviews and Case Studies , 2012 is available at the following link:
http://hudsonia.org/wpcontent/uploads/2013/03/GillenKiviatFracking.pdf

The premise of the study was to investigate the susceptibility of 15 species (1 mammal, 8 salamanders, 2 fishes, 1 butterfly and 3 vascular plants) to the environmental impacts of fracking which is a rapidly expanding business in the Marcellus-Utica region.

 The quasi-endemic species were selected on the basis that they shared a 35-100% overlap biogeographical range with the Marcellus-Utica region; the average overlap is 68.4%, indicating a high potential for fracking induced habitat degradation. Information was gathered on the following criteria: natural history, habitat needs and legal status with regard to susceptibility to the chemical and physical effects of fracking on the environment.

Here is a brief review of the results:

Mammal: The Appalachian cottontail:

Image URL: http://www.jeffpippen.com/mammals/appycottontail060513-1613bckcrkz.jpg

This beautiful sister species to the New England cottontail is already in decline due to small populations separated by  habitat fragmentation and destruction. Fracking effects on average 30 acres of forest for every site that is built. Due to its small population size and small geographic range, the cottontail is already a species that has high vulnerability status; it is suggested that fracking will exacerbate and increase forest destruction and fragmentation therefore increasing the risk of endangerment.

Salamanders: 8 species from the Plethodontidae family; lungless salamanders

Image URL: http://www.discoverlife.org/IM/I_NAT/0000/320/Eurycea_bislineata,I_NAT34.jpg

 Salamanders are thought to have particular sensitivities to environmental change as they respire through the skin and therefore require a constant water source. The paper also states that forest fragmentation and destruction of the salamanders habit may cause both loss in species numbers and genetic diversity; this is because terrestrial salamanders have great difficulty in crossing roads and also struggle to move outside of their forest habitat. Multiple roads are built for access to fracking wells and not only have heavy truck traffic, but also provide an obstacle to terrestrial salamander movement and reduce movement by 51%. The paper also predicts that dispersal may be reduced by a staggering 91%.
Further concerns are also raised over effects of micro-climatic drying  and salinization, the combined effects could lead to the elimination of salamanders from fracking localities and could lead to cumulative species loss.

Fish:  the Bluebreast Darter

Image URL: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/Etheostoma_camurum.jpg

The Bluebreast Darter and the Tounguetied Minow, according to classification by the Environmental Protection Agency both require water of very high quality and are very susceptible to water pollution. Studies by Rozel and Raven, 2012, show that there is a high probability of waste-water from fracking exploits entering local waterways and leaving stream fishes vulnerable to contamination.

Butterflies: the Appalachian azure

Image URL:     http://www.discoverlife.org/IM/I_SOP/0015/640/Celastrina_neglectamajor,_Appalachian_Azure,I_SOP1560.jpg

This species of butterfly, the beautiful Appalachian azure, also has a high sensitivity to forest fragmentation. Furthermore the larvae of this butterfly feed on a plant species (Actaea rasemosa) which could be threatened by non-native plant invasion and by white-tailed deer, set to benefit from the forest fragmentation caused by fracking well and road construction.

Plants: Northern Wild Monkshood

This species of plant is listed as federally threatened plant with high susceptibility to soil contamination. It will also likely be affecting by forest fragmentation, increased soil salinity, and potential contamination from fracking waste water. Furthermore, this species has very narrow biogeographic localities with limited gene flow between isolated populations. It is also threatened by nonnative plant species and fracking is known to facilitate the spread of such plant species.


The conclusion of this article is that fracking could pose a threat to a very diverse range of species, this is particularly prevalent for species that are already threatened or have small and isolated populations. Although this study refers particularly to the Marcellus-Utica region, the wider implications of this study suggest a real need for the sustainable management of edemic species which could be affected by the fracking industry. This encompasses a wide range of threats, including: forest fragmentation, increased salinity of soils, decreased fresh water availability and potential exposure to toxic chemicals. In order to mitigate these threats and ensure future biodiversity, anthropogenic impacts need to be thoroughly studied so that the neccesary regulations can be put in place to manage and prevent species population decline. The need to careful management is also underlined, as the effects of climate chage, logging and other industrial activities will further compound the effects of fracking and make more species susceptible to decline and loss of diversity. Fracking is more than likely going to go ahead at the majority of proposed sites, but we have the opportunity to act early and preserve biodiversity at all levels.

This is a quote from the article summary:

 

 

Biodiversity at all levels, from genes to ecosystems, constitutes many important values to human society and ecosystem

functions, as well as the intrinsic importance of each species.

Conserving biodiversity is important because each species has unique compounds, behaviors, and other information that we may be able to use to improve human health, biotechnology, and enjoyment.

Biodiversity is also of great value to the function of ecosystems—and we do not know how the elimination of certain species will affect ecosystem function.

Water Use in Fracking- Is There a Future for the UK?

According to new estimates by British Geological Survey, (http://www.bgs.ac.uk/) recoverable shale gas reserves in the UK lie between 1,300-1,700 trillion cubic feet... this is enough natural gas to heat every single home in the UK for 1,500 years

Image showing location of shale gas reserves in the UK

Image has been adapted from The Times,

Image URL: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/06/11/article-0-1A41C79D000005DC-927_634x828.jpg

 This has many positive potential outcomes:

• The creation of many jobs-  capacity for the employment of a large and diversely skilled workforce
• Cheaper energy bills for residents of the UK
•  Greater 'Energy Independence' for the UK. This would reduce the reliance of the UK on imported gas, providing a more secure energy source. The price of imported gas is controlled by fluctuations in the global market, largely caused by the rapidly increasing demand for gas and oil in developing countries. The International Energy Agency (http://www.iea.org/) has predicted that by 2030, gas consumption in developing countries will have overtaken that of mature economies. (http://www.edfenergy.com/energyfuture/energy-gap-security/gas-and-the-energy-gap-security)

The advantages of fracking are many, especially when considered in economic terms  and as of May, 2012, fracking in the UK was given the green light to go ahead....

Can the UK supply the fresh water demand?

The first fracking site, and consequent dummy model, for fracking in the United Kingdom was at the Preese Hall Hydraulic Fracturing site in Blackpool, Lancashire. Operations at the site, run by energy company Caudrilla Resources (http://www.cuadrillaresources.com/), have not always gone smoothly.

There were serious concerns over fracking-induced seismic activity at the site, when in June 2011, two minor earthquakes occurred within 500 meters of the fracking site. As a result the site was temporarily suspended from all hydraulic fracturing practices.

Following this, a government commissioned report supported the lifting of the suspension, provided that improvements were made regarding the monitoring of micro-seismic events.
The report, available below, was released by Keele University and the British Geological Survey
(http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/11/meeting-energy-demand/oil-gas/5055-preese-hall-shale-gas-fracturing-review-and-recomm.pdf)

However, earthquakes are only a small part of the picture. Many questions have been left largely unanswered; this is particularly evident in regard to the sourcing of the huge volumes of water required for the hydraulic fracturing process.

The water used in the fracking process, such as  at Caudrilla Resources, is 90% sourced directly from fresh water  resources, such as rivers and reservoirs. Furthermore, the site in Blackpool is located within the catchment of the River Wyre and according to a new impact-assessed report by the Environmental Agency and the Department of Energy and Climate Change, all areas in this catchment zone are classified as 'over-licensed', 'over-abstracted' or 'no water available'.

Following the drought of summer 2012, the Environmental Agency (http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/drought/default.aspx) declared that East Anglia, the South East, the South West, parts of Yorkshire and the Midlands were all in a state of drought; the result of which was hosepipe bans for many residents of the UK. Yet, it is apparent that at that moment in time Caudrilla obtained licences to begin fracking operations in many of the areas affected by drought last summer. Although water resources are now partially replenished, the sustainable management of water resources for the future is clearly an immediate public concern, especially after three consecutive dry winters. This is heightened by new estimates of water consumption of 2000 cubic meters per day, by Water UK, for a 1000 well capacity field. That is the equivalent to the water use of 13,000 people per day....

At the UK Shale conference, on the 17th of July, speaker Dr Jim Marshall (Policy and Business Advisor at Water UK[http://www.water.org.uk/]) highlighted the real concerns regarding freshwater resource competition. In water-stressed areas there may be limited availability freshwater, due to high demand from domestic and agricultural industries... could fracking be supported as well?
 The speech is available here: ( http://www.water.org.uk/home/news/press-releases/challenge-on-gas-fracking/publication-version---jm-shale-gas-speech.pdf)

Notably, Marshall states:

 ' If we get it wrong then water has the potential to stop the industry in its tracks.' 

Marshall concludes with:

'Provision of drinking water is a cornerstone of our public health and as such a 

service that cannot be compromised. Public health is as much about perception and trust as 

it is about absolute quality. Water needs to be properly addressed and planned for - not 

taken for granted or as an after thought'

The sentiments of this report are repeated in a statement from the United Nations Environment Programme (http://unep.org/geas/) that states: 'the needs of water for exploration and the depletion of aquifers has (and will) create conflicts in water usages. Notably, competition with agricultural users is likely to be a serious issue”.

To summarise, I believe that the fracking industry is a multi-component operation that will require the intimate cooperation between many different organisations - such as the fracking company and water board- to ensure safe and sustainable management of the environment as a whole, and with special notation of fresh water supplies. Water resource competition seems almost inevitable, but the scale of water shortage is likely to be on a local scale, rather than nation wide. This means that with careful planning and management, effects can be mitigated.